weekly market update 12/6/2024

The S&P 500 finished the week at new all-time highs as solid economic data, bullish investor sentiment, and seasonal momentum pushed stocks higher for the third consecutive week.  The soft-landing narrative is alive and well, as early indications from the holiday shopping season are good, and the consumer is spending.  Friday’s jobs report was perfectly goldilocks (not too hot, not too cold) as it indicated better-than-expected jobs growth in November and a stable labor market, but also provided the Federal Reserve cover to cut interest rates later this month by showing an unemployment rate that unexpectedly ticked higher (4.2%).  Heading into the end of the year the path of least resistance remains higher, but markets will key in on evolving Trump 2.0 policy expectations.

DECEMBER TAILWINDS

November is historically one of the strongest months of the year for stocks, but December is no slouch.  Per Bank of America, since 1928 the S&P has traded higher 74% of the time in December for an average return of 1.3%.  On election years that win rate rises to 83% with an average monthly return of 1.5%.  Data shows similar strength for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as per Bespoke, over the last 100 years the DJIA is up an average of 1.4% in December with positive returns 73% of the time.  It has been a great year for stocks, but a Santa Claus rally is still very possible.

Ian G. Browning, CFA
Managing Director, Investment Strategies | Shareholder

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