WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE 9/6/2024

September started off much like August as concerns of a slowing labor market spooked investors and the S&P 500 fell over 4% across the month’s first four days of trading.  However, it is worth noting that over the first four trading days of August the S&P 500 fell over 5% but was still able to finish the month with gains.  Underlying much of this week’s growth scare was a Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that indicated the fewest job openings since January 2021 coupled with Friday’s employment report showing lower than expected job creation in August as well as negative revisions to prior months’ data.  Next week is headlined by Wednesday’s consumer price index (CPI) report for August, but ultimately the Federal Reserve’s meeting announcements on September 18th will be top of mind as investors continue to vacillate between whether the Fed cuts interest rates by 0.25% or 0.50%.

SEASONAL HEADWINDS

It is hard to attribute seasonality to market moves, but September has historically been a tough month, particularly over the last couple of decades.  For example, going back to 1990 the S&P 500 has averaged -1% from the Tuesday following Labor Day Weekend until the end of the month (per Jefferies).  Furthermore, since the turn of the century September has been the worst month of the year with the S&P 500 averaging a -1.7% return (per JPMorgan). 

Why then should investors stay invested?  Simply put, seasonality becomes a significant tailwind in the fourth quarter with the S&P 500 averaging +4.2% since 2000 and +9.8% over the last five years (per JPMorgan). 

Ian G. Browning, CFA
Managing Director, Investment Strategies | Shareholder

Thanks to our clients and friends who have referred business to us over the years.

Your endorsement has been the cornerstone of our growth and our greatest compliment.